Thin House districts

A thin House district is one where the current incumbent had a thin margin of victory in the last election and thus is a prime candidate to be knocked off. Here's a map of all the districts that went GOP last time and which voted for Bush, but the margin was less than 5%:


This is really useful if you're targeting certain races, such as these "top" 30 House races. The danger of incumbency: only 4 of the most likely seats to be overturned are Dem.

In order to change hands this November, the Dems need pick up only 15 seats.