Tradesports update for Sun. Oct 9: 44.3%

Between now and the election it might be fun to have a Tradesports update on Dems taking back the House of Representatives. Last time (Sept. 19, 2006) there was just over a 50% chance of GOP retaining control.

Today that's down to 44.3%. Anything below 50% indicates a Dem take-over of the House:




The fall-off started on Sept. 30th, before the Foley (R-FL) sex scandal, and continued through it:



There's a slight uptick yesterday.

I also noted several weeks ago that odds on GOP retention of the Senate were at 80%, where they've been all year, and wondered if anything could break that. Well looks like Foley has:

The Senate is now at 71.7%

(They've also started a line of whether Hastert will resign before the election: 10% chance right now if you want to get in!)